When Trump shut down my project as part of closing down USAID, it was framed as part of a greater push to reduce federal spending and cut the national deficit. Initially, Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) set an ambitious target of cutting $1.8 trillion. Concurrently, President Trump began imposing tariffs on imports from most countries, confidently claiming this would “make America rich again” and boasting about the hundreds of millions in customs revenue pouring in each month.
The question is, after all the noise and policy changes, how did they actually do?
The U.S. fiscal year ended on September 30th, with the Trump Administration having been in power for nearly nine of the twelve months. The final numbers are telling:
- Overall Spending: Total federal government spending came in at $7.01 trillion. This was an increase of $250 million from FY2024 and close to President Biden’s projected $7.09 trillion.
- Receipts: Total receipts were $5.23 trillion. This was up $300 million from FY2024 but fell short of President Biden’s projected $5.42 trillion.
- Deficit: The overall deficit settled at $1.78 trillion, slightly lower than the $1.82 trillion recorded for FY2024.
For all the fanfare surrounding spending cuts and revenue increases, the actual changes to the overall fiscal picture are negligible. The numbers barely budged.
So, where did the impact fall short?
Customs revenues did more than double for the year, but this meant an increase from $0.08 trillion to $0.19 trillion. While an impressive percentage jump, it still accounts for only 4% of the federal government’s total revenues.
Furthermore, the Department of Government Efficiency’s cuts targeted a relatively small part of the budget. For context, in FY2024, USAID’s total spending was just $21 billion, or 0.3% of the federal budget. This negligible saving was then counterbalanced by a dramatic increase in spending on migration enforcement under the same administration.
The Trump Administration gutted parts of the government like USAID, without achieving a significant reduction in the total cost of government. They significantly increased tariffs without significantly increasing overall revenues. Ultimately, the result appears to be a lot of pain with very little fiscal gain.