Category: Current Affairs

  • Was it worth it

    When Trump shut down my project as part of closing down USAID,  it was framed as part of a greater push to reduce federal spending and cut the national deficit. Initially, Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) set an ambitious target of cutting $1.8 trillion. Concurrently, President Trump began imposing tariffs on imports from most countries, confidently claiming this would “make America rich again” and boasting about the hundreds of millions in customs revenue pouring in each month.

    The question is, after all the noise and policy changes, how did they actually do?

    The U.S. fiscal year ended on September 30th, with the Trump Administration having been in power for nearly nine of the twelve months. The final numbers are telling:

    • Overall Spending: Total federal government spending came in at $7.01 trillion. This was an increase of $250 million from FY2024 and close to President Biden’s projected $7.09 trillion.
    • Receipts: Total receipts were $5.23 trillion. This was up $300 million from FY2024 but fell short of President Biden’s projected $5.42 trillion.
    • Deficit: The overall deficit settled at $1.78 trillion, slightly lower than the $1.82 trillion recorded for FY2024.

    For all the fanfare surrounding spending cuts and revenue increases, the actual changes to the overall fiscal picture are negligible. The numbers barely budged.

    So, where did the impact fall short?

    Customs revenues did more than double for the year, but this meant an increase from $0.08 trillion to $0.19 trillion. While an impressive percentage jump, it still accounts for only 4% of the federal government’s total revenues.

    Furthermore, the Department of Government Efficiency’s cuts targeted a relatively small part of the budget. For context, in FY2024, USAID’s total spending was just $21 billion, or 0.3% of the federal budget. This negligible saving was then counterbalanced by a dramatic increase in spending on migration enforcement under the same administration.

    The Trump Administration gutted parts of the government like USAID, without achieving a significant reduction in the total cost of government. They significantly increased tariffs without significantly increasing overall revenues. Ultimately, the result appears to be a lot of pain with very little fiscal gain.

  • Eight years of Hope

    Shortly before Obama took office, I wrote a post with the title What will the world look like after this economic crisis? I saw the big economic crisis of the time as an inevitable correction. The US had been living too big for too long. I saw that Africans were taking over international jobs once reserved for expatriates. The rest of the world was catching up to America in terms of the ability to get tings done. I said that American would come out of this recession poorer than it went in–the glory days were gone.

    After Obama's inauguration, I changed my mind. He convinced me that I had been thinking too small. I remember almost titling that post Slapped down by Obama. 

    Trump won because I was right. For much of America, we did not recover from that economic crisis. Last summer, we drove through Indiana and I saw the communities that never recovered. I think Obama did a great job. He brought hope and change to many. However the world has changed. Whereas in the 1950s, a blue color american could support a middle class family, that will never be true again.

    There are great jobs for well educated people. There are plenty of opportunities for those with the right skills and in the right place. This is a golden age for entrepreneurship. But what do you do for those who are unwilling or unable to to take advantage of those opportunities? 

  • Yes, Muslims should try to root out extremists in their midsts

    … and so too should anti-abortion activists, environmentalists, political activists, Christians, and all other groups. The United States is founded on the belief that all men [women and children] are created equal and have the inalienable  right of life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. We have to work together to protect these rights, protect our neighbors, and build the country that we want to live in. Can you imagine the shame of knowing that a neighbor had imprisoned women in his house for years and you did nothing to help? That your talk encouraged someone to open fire on a health center that offered abortions? Or that you had a friend who became such an extremists that he shot innocent people in the name of your religion? Are we not our brother's keeper?

  • Lying wasn’t Greg Mortenson’s biggest sin

    MortensonOn Tuesday, Greg Mortenson reappeared after the scandal surrounding his books and charity to apologize for lying. “I stand by the stories. The stories happened, but … not in the sequence or the timing,” Mortenson told Brokaw. If his only fault was rearranging the facts, then I would never have cared. After all, All Marketers are Liars Tell Stories.I don't mind that he changed the truth around a bit to make a good story.

    What really upset me was finding out that he didn't run a charity focused on building schools in Afghanistan. Instead he ran a self-promotion company. Jon Krakauer's book, Three Cups of Deceit, was more damning of how poorly run the Central Asia Institute was than of the poor story telling. He showed how the Central Asia Institute seemed to exist more to promote and purchase Greg's book than to build schools. Rather than Greg's book being a source of income for the Institute, a large portion of the Institute's budget went to funding Greg's book tour and purchasing, at full market price, Greg's books. Many of the schools that were built weren't even being used.

    As Seth tells in All Marketers are Liars, everyone tells stories that have shades of untruth to them. Rearranging the facts to make a better story is fine as long as the central story is true. The real lie that Greg Mortenson told was claiming that he was trying to improve education in Afghanistan. Instead, he was just trying to get rich. This is why the Central Asia Institute has lost nearly all of its funding.

    By contrast, Kiva managed to survive largely unscathed when its great untruth was exposed.  Kiva claims to allow people to lend directly to small businesses in poor countries. Their website is full of stories of micro-entrepreneurs who need a little cash to grow their business. You can pick someone with a compelling story, lend them money, and when the loan is repaid so are you. It seems like a fun, easy way to help out. Except it doesn't work that way. Back in 2009, David Roodman showed that most entrepreneurs are funded well before their page even appears on the Kiva website. If the entrepreneur defaults on a loan, the intermediary organization that facilitates the loan repays it. There really isn't any link between the donor and the entrepreneur.

    Big scandal, right? No. Kiva quickly admitted that this was indeed the case and that it was a matter of logistics. The entrepreneur needed the cash quickly. It didn't make sense to make them wait for funding to come (or not come). Yes, the intermediary organziations would repay loans but that was to prevent occasional defaults from disqualifying them from managing future loans. Kiva was in the business of funding micro entrepreneurs, just not quite how they had originally described it. So Kiva is going strong while the Central Asia Institute is nearly closed.

    We all tell stories and no story is ever completely true. If the Central Asia Institute was doing great work in Afghanistan as Kiva is doing with microfinance, I would have easily forgiven Greg for playing with his facts. Instead, I feel as if his whole story was just a con.

  • Notable books on Haiti

    Several friends have asked me for recommendations on books about Haiti. The following are books that I have read and would recommend. I have divided them into four categories (fiction, non-fiction, dubious but interesting, and coffee table books). I thought about leaving out entirely the books that I consider a bit dubious, but the all have facinating information. (Note all links are amazon affiliate links)

    Fiction

    The Comedians  by Graham Greene: Classics just never go out of date. This is still a great book about Haiti.

    Island Beneath the Sea by Isabel Allende: a moving portrayal of the Haitian revolution told from the point of view of a slave, her owner, and people both sympathetic to the revolutions and fighting against it. Note that the second half of the book takes place in New Orleans.

    The Farming of Bones by Edwidge Danticat: the story of the massacre of Haitians in the Dominican borderlands in 1939.

    Breath, Eyes, Memory also by Edwidge Danticat: fictionalized story of growing up in Haiti.

    Non-Fiction

    Notes From the Last Testament: The Struggle for Haiti by Michael Deibert and Raoul Peck: a great overview of the collapse of the second Aristide government.

    Rainy Season: Haiti-Then and Now by Amy Wilentz: a fascinating look into Aristide's role in the downfall of the Duvalier Government. It was written before Aristide's government collapsed and does not look into the darker side of what later happened.

    The Immaculate Invasion by Bob Shacochis:  the story of the 1994 US occupation told by an embedded reporter. This nicely brings out the rambling, lack of focus that characterized the occupation.

    Restavec: From Haitian Slave Child to Middle-Class American ;the autobiography of Jean-Robert Cade. Tells the story of the abuses that he faced as a child slave in Haiti. Knowing how many kids never escape form this fate makes it a painful read.

    Mountains beyond Mountains : Tracy Kidder the fascinating story of Dr. Paul Farmer and the start of Partners in Health.

    Dubious facts, but interesting reads

    Anything by Paul Farmer: Dr. farmer is a hero for the work that he has done in Haiti and around the world. In his books, he plays fast and free with the facts to back up his own point of view.

    The Serpent and the Rainbow: A Harvard Scientist's Astonishing Journey into the Secret Societies of Haitian Voodoo, Zombis, and Magic by Wade Davis: A supposedly scientific investigation into voodoo. I don’t believe the insights into how voodoo works, but it does have good insights into Haitian rural life.

    Why the Cocks Fight: Dominicans, Haitians, and the Struggle for Hispaniola by Michele Wucker: provides a great, east to read overview of the history of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. However, the central thesis that the island is too small to allow for strong presidents to govern in both countries doesn't really hold up.

    Coffee Table/gift books

    Paroles et Lumieres-Where Light Speaks: Haiti (English and French Edition), by Hiebert; Phelps; Yates; Cav: A beautiful look at Haiti by two people who love it well.

    Hispaniola: A Photographic Journey through Island Biodiversity  by Eladio Fernández: A beautiful catalog of the animals on both sides of the island.

    What other books would you recommend on Haiti?

     

  • Death of a Dominican Hero: Sonia Pierre

    Sonya_Pierre_presidente_de_MUDHA

    Sonia Pierre was both lauded and harassed by the Dominican government for her work to protect the rights of people of Haitian descent in the Dominican Republic. While the Dominican Government was threatening to revoke her citizenship, her photo was being displayed downtown Santo Domingo as a Dominican Hero.

    I worked with her in 2008 as we were preparing a proposal to improve conditions in the the bateyes. I was impressed with her drive and vision as well as with the quality of the work that MUDHA was implementing.

    Human rights work is thankless work. The Dominican government knows that it needs to have a clear, coherent policy towards dealing with Haitian migrants, but it is split. There are those who want the cheap labor and those who want to protect Dominican jobs–just as we have in the United States. Haiti has the same split–because Haiti cannot provide jobs or liveable conditions for so many of its citizens, it needs the escape valve provided by the Dominican Republic while at the same time deploring the way its citizens are treated. I saw this as an unsolveable problem and did not focus on it. Sonia Pierre saw this important work and devoted her life to it. 

  • STUCK…the Haitian Elections Part 3

    The Haitian elections are at an impasse with no clear path out. I was in Haiti last week when the rioting broke out over the elections results. I had been asking my Haitian friends what they thought would happen.The most common response was, "I don't know what will be announced, but I don't think the results they announce will have anything to do with how people voted on the 28th." Like most organizations, we closed our office early on the day that the results were announced to allow our staff to get home before the storm broke.

    That night, the CEP representative was shaking as he read the results that put Preval's Unity party in a strong lead for controlling the parliament and then announcing that their candidate had made the cut and would be part of the run-off for the presidency.

    I spent the next days and a half holed up in our guest house as we listened to the reports of the protests that spread throughout the country then fled out through the Dominican Republic when a light rain kept the protesters home (it was a bit odd being the person from Washington who had to be evacuated out of the country rather than the one was expected to hold down the fort!).

    (more…)

  • What if the Haitian Elections were not so bad?

    Yesterday, I wrote a post entitled "The Haitian Elections are Disputed…now what?" At that point, it looked like Haiti was headed towards a major crisis. 12 of the Presidential candidates had held a press conference to denounce the elections as fraudulent. Crowds had gathered in Petionville to protest against the elections. A well-connected friend of mine told me that the only solution was for President Preval to quit and leave the country. There were all the makings of a major crisis.

    But then the tide changed. The top two opposition presidential candidates retracted their earlier allegations. Then the OAS came out saying that the elections were valid. It seems that the early returns had Mme. Manigat and Michel Martely as the top vote getters. It is hard to claim that the government had rigged the elections if their candidate was losing! Although it is too early to close this affair entirely, it does seem that we all jumped to the wrong conclusion.

    So what happened? Assuming that no new information comes to light and the final results are legitimate and accepted, why were we all so ready to believe that they were fraudulent? I am afraid that this might turn out to be a case where we all chose to look at the world through our own filters rather than waiting for the facts. Haiti has had so many failures that it was easy to assume that the elections were yet another one. Rather than holding out for facts, we went with the easy story that Haiti had failed once again. 

    I hope that am left humbled by this situation–that the final results show that Preval and his electoral council, with help from the OAS and the UN, did pull off the impossible and manage to hold relatively free and fair elections. I will happily apologize for having been a doubter.

     

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-11870013udd

  • The Haiti Elections are disputed…now what?

    Twelve of the candidates for the Haitian Presidency gathered today before the polls had even closed to denounce the widespread fraud that they claimed was happening. The candidates included all of the top candidates with the exception of the one in Preval's party who had been trailing a distant second in the pre-election polls. As I write this entry, there are reports of protests in Port-au-Prince, Gonaives, Cape Haitian, and elsewhere. So what comes next?

    It would be wonderful if the reported cases of fraud were untrue–if the stories of stuffed ballot boxes and blocked voters were just exaggerations. There are always logistical problems at elections–we have this problem in the US as well. If it turns out that the actual vote count matches the pre-election polls, then perhaps the twelve candidates over-reacted.

    A second possibility is that the fraud happened, but that the Electoral Council and the International Community decide that it was within an acceptable range. A candidate has to get more than 50% to avoid a second round (scheduled for January 16th). If the results show that no candidate won the required 50%, even if Preval's candidate (Jude Celestin) was in first place, then a runoff will have to happen. This might be acceptable to the Haitian political parties, if they could be assured that the runoff would be cleaner. Many would claim that the Celestin only made it to the second round through fraud, but it would hold out the hope that the opposition could still win in the second round. Note that Mme Manigat refused to run in the runoff elections in 2006 because she felt that the first round was too flawed. She might take the same route again.

    The worst case would be to have the fraud so blatant that the results would be completely unacceptable–for example if Jude Celestin was declared to have won more than the 50% required to avoid a run-off election. This would force a confrontation and would force the international community to take sides.

    The international community trumpeted these elections as an important milestone in Haiti's progress. Instead of providing a clear path forward, the elections have created many more questions and doubt. Haiti desperately needs clear leadership to allow it to rise from the rubble. I hope and pray that somehow this mess ends well.

  • The Haitian Election Question

    Should Haiti hold elections this year?
     Should Haiti hold elections this year for the parliament, mayors, and president? Are elections a key step to ensuring honest, transparent governance or are they a dangerous distraction from the business of rebuilding the country? 

    Although the international consensus seems to be that Haiti needs to hold elections to maintain a credible government, I believe that the opposite is true. Holding elections will just maintain the status quo and contribute to rebuilding the chaos.

    The Haitian government is based on the 1987 constitution which was written to ensure that another dictator like Duvalier could never dominate the country. The Constitution sets out a strongly decentralized government with numerous checks and balances. Unfortunately, the structure is so complicated that Haiti has never succeeded in electing all of the required officials. As per the 1987 Constitution, the government is composed of the following levels:

    The nation is divided into ten departments which are divided into 133 municipalities (communes) and 533 rural sections (sections communales). Each rural section is to have an elected three-person council (Article 63) and an assembly (Article 65). The municipality is governed by a three-member council (Article 70) plus an assembly composed of representatives of each rural section assembly (Article 66-1). The department is governed by a council and an assembly composed of representatives from each municipal assembly (Article 80). 

    With all the chaos in Haiti over the last 25 years, Haiti has never managed to elect all of these different levels. There have never been functioning rural section assemblies and therefore never municipal assemblies and never departmental assemblies. 

    Unfortunately for Haiti, one of the responsibilities of the departmental assemblies is to propose the candidates for the Permanent Electoral Council. Without a permanent electoral council, each election is run by a provisional one created for that purpose. To make these councils "fair," they are normally composed of members of each political party. Just imagine how hard it would be to hold elections in the United States if they had to be organized by a board composed of an equal number of Democrats and Republicans with a few independents thrown in for good measure!

    Another critical problem with the Haitian government system is the division of power between the President and Prime Minister. In theory, the President sets the overall vision and the Prime Minister manages the day-to-day affairs of the government. Although the President proposes the Prime Minister to the Parliament, the candidate must come from the majority party in Parliament. Additionally, the Parliament, not the President, has the power to revoke the Prime Minister. This split seems to inevitably result in conflicts and power struggles.

    The Constitution was ratified in 1987 and Haiti has struggled unsuccessfully for over 23 years to implement the envisioned government. It is time to try a fresh approach. What if, instead of holding elections amid the current chaos in Haiti to elect officials to an unworkable form of government, Haiti started fresh. The government admitted the obvious–it is impossible to campaign for office during this reconstruction and the jockeying for power and position hampers this important work. Instead of holding yet another round of elections this year, a new national assembly would be called. This new assembly would begin meeting on January 12, 2011 to write a new Constitution. In 2011, Haiti would hold a national referendum to accept or reject the new constitution (which will hopefully provide for a more streamlined government) and then to hold whatever elections are called for in the new constitution.

    I met with one of the UN consultants working on the Post Disaster Needs Assessment. He said that hardest question that their team faces is, "To what state do we rebuild Haiti?" If the goal is to put Haiti right back where it was on January 11th, then Haiti should go forward with its elections. However, if the goal is to build the foundation for sustainable growth, then Haiti needs a fresh start and a new constitution.